If you’ve seen the rush lines outside TIFF venues this week, you already know: even when demand soars, humans get creative. Ticket seekers are standing shoulder-to-shoulder, scouring forums and swapping seats with strangers—anything for a chance to participate. Strangely, it’s not so different from our housing market lately.
In both real estate and film festivals, limited supply squeezes out the casual shopper. Just like a Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) premiere, securing a dream home—or even just a mortgage pre-approval—often comes down to strategy, timing, and a little financial finesse. This September, as TIFF brings excitement to the city’s core, our housing market is experiencing its own drama. Let’s take a closer look at what the current market activity means for Canadian homeowners.
Buyers Waiting in the Wings—Again
In July and August, hopes were high for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada. But by early September, the Bank held firm at 5%, citing stubborn core inflation and global uncertainty. As a result, many eager buyers remain “in the wings,” unable or unwilling to qualify for more under the current stress test rules.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month in August 2023. While listings are slightly up, properties aren’t flying off the market like they did during the pandemic boom. Buyers are hesitant, and that hesitation is shaping a new kind of activity—just like TIFF-goers lining up at the last minute, now more mortgage shoppers are turning to budget-friendly tactics.
One trend I’m seeing among clients is increased interest in variable rate options, especially from those betting on rate decreases in 2024. Even as fixed rates hover above 6%, variable rates provide the hope of lower payments in the medium term. But it’s a gamble, and just like rush-line TIFF tickets, there are no guarantees you’ll snag the deal you want.
Down Payments, Dramas, and the Cost of Entry
Trying to break into the market today is difficult. High rates mean higher qualifying thresholds, and even with some price adjustments, affordability hasn’t improved much. A report from RBC Economics this summer said the average Canadian household would need to spend 60% of its income on mortgage payments to buy a typical home. That’s historic. That’s also… unsustainable.
So what are savvy buyers doing? Some are using options like a second mortgage from an existing property to help fund a down payment. Others, especially homeowners in their 40s and 50s, are looking at equity-tapping tools like a reverse mortgage to support family purchases. It’s not unusual anymore for parents to help their adult kids with that first big leap—especially in markets like Vancouver, Toronto, or even fast-rising Halifax.
And while not a silver bullet, some are lowering expectations. Just like TIFF fans opting for indie films over star-studded galas, buyers are adjusting their tastes—more condos, fewer single-family homes; suburban towns over urban cores.
Supply Still the Missing Star
For all the talk about demand, it’s supply that remains the market’s biggest hurdle. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) warned this year that Canada will need over 3.5 million new homes by 2030 to restore affordability. That’s on top of what we were already building. Yet material delays, labour shortages, and municipal bottlenecks keep pushing timelines.
That shortage leads many to consider alternatives like a construction mortgage, especially in rural and exurban zones where land is more available. But those projects also come with rising costs, making it essential to lock in financing early.
And here’s where the TIFF comparison really lands: just like festival-goers rush to grab spare seats from forums and apps, today’s buyers are piecing together creative strategies to get into the housing market. Whether it’s a co-ownership agreement with friends, a HELOC-funded renovation, or tapping into private lending—people are exploring every avenue.
Ticket Scalping? Let’s Talk House Flipping
Remember when real estate investors were flipping homes with weeks-to-months timelines at massive profit? Those days are, for now, over. Instead, more investors are becoming long-term landlords instead of quick-sell speculators. Part of the reason: interest costs have squeezed margins hard, and the new anti-flipping tax introduced by CRA this year is a deterrent too.
This shift affects resale volume. I often see homeowners sitting on the sidelines not because they don’t want to move, but because they don’t want to give up their low-rate mortgages. That’s created what’s been called a “lock-in effect,” keeping transaction volumes—and inventory—low, even in active cities.
If you are thinking of getting back into the market, now may be the time to assess your options with a mortgage refinance or by exploring available fixed rate choices that offer stability while you wait out the uncertainty.
Final Scene: What This Means for You
While TIFF ticket hunters are going to creative lengths for a seat to their chosen film, the housing market is seeing a similar mentality. Homeowners and buyers alike are innovating, adjusting, and reading between the lines. With rates holding and affordability strained, it isn’t about timing the market—it’s about knowing your options and acting when the spotlight hits.
If you’re unsure where your current mortgage fits in this plot twist, or if it’s time to explore new financing strategies, we’re here to help. At Unrate, our advisors offer advice tailored to your personal scene—whether that involves switching lenders, accessing equity, or hunting for the best mortgage rates for your next act.
The world of real estate may not have red carpets, but with the right guidance, you can secure a prime seat for your family’s future.
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