With headlines constantly blaming foreign buyers and newcomers for housing affordability issues, it’s easy to assume that increased immigration directly inflates home prices. But a recent study from Statistics Canada reveals a surprising nuance: non-permanent residents may not have the ownership impact many believe. Instead, their influence is more keenly felt in the rental market. So, what does this mean for homebuyers, current homeowners, and mortgage strategy in 2024?
Non-Permanent Residents and Homeownership: Less Impact Than Expected
According to new data from StatCan, non-permanent residents (NPRs), including international students, temporary workers, and asylum seekers, are significantly less likely to own homes in Canada than they are to rent. In big cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where housing pressures are top of mind, only a minimal share of home transfers involved NPRs between 2018 and 2021.
In provinces such as British Columbia and Ontario—often cited for having the highest housing costs—NPRs accounted for just 2.3% of ownership changes. That’s a drop in the bucket when considering the wider housing ecosystem. This directly contradicts the narrative blaming higher immigration for soaring home prices.
Instead, the statistics showed a clearer effect on the rental landscape. In urban centres where newcomers typically arrive, demand for rental units continues rising sharply. That pressure filters upward indirectly, keeping homeowners with income properties in high demand, but without fundamentally disrupting the resale market itself.
Home Prices and Demand: Rethinking the Real Influencers
So, if NPRs aren’t dramatically driving home prices, what—or who—is?
One of the dominant forces remains restricted housing supply. According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC’s 2023 Housing Supply Deficit Report), Canada needs to build an additional 3.5 million homes by 2030 to restore affordability.
Rising interest rates through 2022 and 2023 created additional drag—cooling buyer enthusiasm while also kneecapping many builders, delaying projects or cancelling them outright. Combine that with municipal red tape, slow permits, and an aging construction workforce, and it’s no wonder inventory remains tight.
Meanwhile, mortgage stress tests and tightened lending rules limit how much buyers can borrow, dampening price growth more than population trends alone.
If you’re a homeowner considering a move or refinance, this context matters. It suggests prices are more a result of domestic policy and supply constraints, not international demand. Our best mortgage rates tool can help you assess your real leverage without falling for market myths.
Rental Pressures Could Still Influence Ownership in the Long Run
While the ownership footprint of NPRs is limited right now, their impact on rentals is harder to ignore. As of 2023, Canada welcomed over one million new immigrants, many of whom rent before eventually settling into ownership. That journey shapes future housing trends even if today’s numbers don’t show it.
Landlords certainly feel the NPR touch. The 2024 CMHC Rental Market Report showed rising average rents in virtually every Canadian city, driven by minimal vacancy and ballooning demand. Toronto’s average rent reached over $2,500 per month for a two-bedroom, up more than 5% year-over-year. These higher yields are pushing some property owners to hold rather than sell, limiting resale inventory.
If you’re investing in a second property or considering renovations to convert a basement into a rental suite, now may be an opportune moment. Higher rental returns can offset high borrowing costs, and with the right guidance, a refinance could unlock equity to make it happen.
Does This Change How You Think About Ownership?
If there’s one takeaway from these findings, it’s that we need to look beyond headlines and examine the real levers moving our market. Blaming population growth oversimplifies a much more layered issue. Policy decisions, lending constraints, and housing starts are doing far more to shape the terrain today.
Homeowners aged 30 to 55 are especially affected. Many are upgrading, refinancing, or helping adult children enter the market. Understanding the true market forces—rather than the most vocal narratives—can help you make smarter financial choices. And tools like our mortgage calculator make it easier to model various scenarios, from upgrades to investment property strategies.
Whether navigating a fixed rate renewal or looking at ways to build passive income, it’s crucial to plan based on accurate housing data, not misconceptions. With an informed view, your next mortgage decision can support your financial goals rather than just reacting to the market buzz.
Conclusion: It’s Time to Rethink the Narrative
Non-permanent residents may be affecting the rental market more than homeownership—but that doesn’t mean we ignore the challenges in affordability and availability. Supply, interest rates, and policy shape your home’s value and your mortgage outlook far more than temporary immigration status does.
Let’s focus on what really drives the market and use that to build personalized mortgage strategies that work for you. If you’re thinking about making a move—whether that’s upsizing, refinancing, or exploring a reverse mortgage—the team at Unrate is here to help with advice tailored to today’s fast-changing landscape.
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