This past Black Friday looked a little different for many British Columbians. Traditionally, cross-border shoppers would flock to U.S. stores in search of doorbuster deals. But this year, the Aldergrove-Lynden border crossing saw a 94% decline in traffic compared to pre-pandemic levels. Fewer Canadians headed south. And while that change may seem like a small shift in shopping behaviour, it might actually be signalling something bigger happening in household finances—and the housing economy.
At Unrate.ca, we keep a close eye on how consumer trends and economic signals affect homeowners. Signs like these changes in shopping habits can help forecast real estate activity, mortgage demand, and even help explain how Canadians are choosing to spend—and save—in the face of ongoing interest rate pressure.
Rising Domestic Spending and Real Estate Reflection
One of the clearest implications of fewer cross-border shoppers is that more Canadians are choosing to spend—and stay—local. Whether that shift is out of necessity or preference, it reflects a broader “back to basics” mindset. And that mindset is trickling into the way people think about real estate.
Mortgage costs remain high after ten interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada from March 2022 to July 2023. Though the BoC has held rates steady in recent months, the current policy rate of 5% means many homeowners are rethinking where their money goes. Instead of making discretionary purchases in the U.S., they’re focusing on essentials—and often, that means their mortgage.
If you’re watching your monthly budget more closely than ever, you’re not alone. According to the latest StatCan data, household savings rates are starting to creep back up after record lows earlier this year. It appears that after a few years of dramatic spending shifts, Canadians are returning to more prudent habits—possibly in anticipation of future housing decisions or debt commitments.
Interest Rates Still Shaping Homeowner Psychology
While shopping data might at first glance seem unrelated to housing, these behavioural signals tell us a lot. When border traffic drops by over 90% on one of the year’s biggest shopping days, it suggests a pullback in discretionary spending. That cautionary stance extends into the real estate market too.
Canadian mortgage holders with upcoming renewals in 2024 are especially sensitive to interest rate headlines. Many are locked into 5-year fixed rates established in 2018 and 2019, when rates hovered around 2.5% to 3%. Today’s fixed-rate options sit closer to 5.6% and can climb even higher depending on the lender and term.
The ripple effect is clear: people are thinking twice about making big purchases—homes included. That’s supported by national sales activity. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported a 5.6% drop in home sales in October 2023 compared to September. It’s the kind of cooling that suggests Canadians are bracing for the long haul, waiting for signals of future rate cuts before jumping back into the market.
Homegrown Shopping May Reflect a Steeper Focus on Homeownership
There may also be a cultural shift at play. More Canadians are choosing to invest in their own backyard—literally. Home projects, renovations, and even first-time home purchases have surged in interest as people re-route funds that might’ve once gone to retail therapy south of the border.
This could help explain why demand remains steady for home financing products like HELOCs and construction mortgages. When interest rates are high, Canadians with existing equity often prefer to tap into their homes to finance other goals—renos, debt consolidation, or supporting their children’s down payment—rather than rack up new credit card debt or make large purchases abroad.
A simpler Black Friday may actually reveal a stronger long-term commitment to home ownership. After all, a big box TV is nice, but a roof over your head builds wealth and stability. More than ever, Canada’s middle class is choosing to plant roots—even if the market feels uncertain now.
Why This Matters for Canadian Homeowners
If Black Friday’s border lull tells us anything, it’s that Canadians are becoming more conscious stewards of their money. That mindset can pave the way for smarter mortgage moves as well—whether you’re considering refinancing, switching from variable to fixed, or making prepayment decisions.
In times of economic uncertainty, strategic financial planning matters more than ever. For some, that could mean exploring a reverse mortgage to support retirement goals. For others, it may be a timely decision to refinance to lock in more manageable payments.
What’s clear is that thinking locally—whether in your shopping or in your mortgage decisions—can be a financially sound move right now. And just as Canadians stayed home this Black Friday, many are also pressing pause on major real estate transactions until interest rates offer more clarity. But waiting doesn’t mean doing nothing. It means planning.
Conclusion
This year’s quiet Black Friday offers an interesting snapshot of where our heads—and wallets—are. As fewer British Columbians crossed the border for deals, many turned their attention inward: to their homes, their communities, and their long-term stability.
If you’re one of the many Canadians navigating today’s mortgage landscape, now is a great time to reassess your options. Whether you’re seeking the best mortgage rates, trying to lower overall debt, or planning your financial future, speaking to someone who understands the picture helps. At Unrate.ca, we’re here to guide you through whatever comes next—holiday season and beyond.
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